[complex_exp]

Russia. All the asian russians are very much treated as second class citizens, from the top (deciding where to draft mobiks from) to the bottom (a much worse case of what americans today would call police brutality / bias). We have to see if it survives though.

[int_19h]

The problem is that Russia has succeeded in settling many of its colonized territories such that natives are minorities in most of their titular region. Consider Buryatia for a prominent example - Buryats have been used as Russian shock troops in Ukraine since 2015 (Debaltsevo), yet population of the republic is only 44% Buryat but 53% Russian. On top of that, much of the native population is culturally Russified.

Tuva and ethnic republics of the Caucasus are where the natives have majorities that mostly retain their separate cultural and ethnic identity, so if something does fall apart, I would expect it to happen there.