[time_to_smile]

Or we see a contraction in globalization in general in which all economies shrink.

It's entirely reasonable that we could enter a period of long, slow decline across the board. Especially as we continue to push the limits of natural resources and global supply chains.

For example suppose the US continues to move its push to return chip manufacturing to the US. This might mean both that US chip manufactures have a more healthy future than other more fragile tech companies and that they shrink in size. We could see a return of manufacturing to the US which leads to continued employment in US labor for while also meaning that labor force gets paid much less.

We're already starting to see evidence of this happening.

The concerning thing is that I'm not at all sure that our incredibly debt dependent global economy, which assumes future growth, can really handle a gradual contraction to a more sustainable economic structure.

Either way, assuming up is the only way for the market to go is a very naive assumption, but one nobody is happy questioning.

[verdverm]

> a gradual contraction to a more sustainable economic structure

Why do you assume that it requires a contraction to reach a sustainable economic structure?

What prevents the economy from growing for the foreseeable future while also becoming more sustainable at the same time?

[time_to_smile]

Before answering your question, you need to first be clear what "sustainable" means. For me sustainable means that we can continue to life as we do indefinitely.

Our current economic structure, due to its reliance on credit, requires perpetual growth and development in order to pay off today's debts. Debt in all forms has been growing increasingly and rapidly in recent years.

Infinite growth is not possible on a finite planet.

In many areas we are already seeing the limits of growth, from strains on oil supplies to global population growth starting to slow down. This is already, today, putting a strain on our economic systems.

Since our current way of life can only be sustained by future growth, it is by definition not sustainable unless you sincerely believe growth to be without limit (this would require near term interplanetary travel and energy advances such as fusion). As mentioned, we are already seeing system strain suggesting we are hitting limits.

Contraction is the preferable path of the two realistic alternatives, the other is complete collapse.

How do you propose the economy growth for the foreseeable future and becoming more sustainable?

[verdverm]

By becoming more digital and services based. Most new added value is from non-physical activities, i.e. does not require significant raw material input. We'll also likely get better at recycling and using biology to create new sustainable sources for inputs, like hydrocarbons

[vl]

>We could see a return of manufacturing to the US which leads to continued employment in US labor for while also meaning that labor force gets paid much less.

Interesting! Why is it happening? Shouldn’t labor earn more in this scenario?

[bluGill]

Depends. Manufacturing in the US implies high automation. For those who maintain the machines there is a lot of money, but there are far less jobs and in turn far less in total in labor.

Though I suspect there is more need for such labor than people who can do the job. Hard to say, but there are a lot of things we haven't automated yet.