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by itsoktocry 1259 days ago
>Someone investing at age 18 might care about the subsequent 50 years

Those 50 years are part of the next 150, and are no easier to forecast. Most market projections are for numbers ~7% annually, but periods worse than that would drastically alter investing plans, and hence social infrastructure planning.
2 comments
JustSomeNobody 1259 days ago
That is why https://www.firecalc.com/ exists. The idea is that you save enough that over all the possible starting years, you would end up with money instead of broke, for the length of time you think you'll be alive.
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kudokatz 1259 days ago
It's my understanding that firecalc uses only US data. Japan has "lost decades" of price-weighted, non-dividend returns that are flat since 1988 (Nikkei 225). Seems worth considering that some version of this has some future probability of happening in the US and hedging that.

Another similar and popular US-data-only tool that is fun to play with is cFIREsim: https://www.cfiresim.com/

(Edit: of course, US companies have non-US revenues - helps out a bit)

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JustSomeNobody 1257 days ago
Yes, that's a risk. If that happens, most of us simply won't ever retire. Yay capitalism?
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paganel 1259 days ago
> Most market projections are for numbers ~7% annually,

Too lazy to web search for an answer, but are those real returns? (i.e. inflation-adjusted).

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