[bayesian_horse]

A nuclear weapons program may be in the interest of Iran (though I doubt it). It's not in anyone else's interest.

Much of what Iran is doing is somewhat irrational... meddling in conflicts around the reason in particular is often much to its own detriment, but serves some "irrational" purpose. Same as with posturing over the Hormuz strait, well knowing they can't do shit against the US navy.

Yes, if you ignore all the things contrary to your world view and only look at what fits it, and squint really hard, you can say the stuff you say.

[ceejayoz]

> It's not in anyone else's interest.

So? Acting in self-interest isn't irrational.

Similarly, posturing over the Hormuz strait is a rational act; they don't need to go after the US Navy when commercial shipping would suffice.

[JumpCrisscross]

> they don't need to go after the US Navy when commercial shipping would suffice

What do you think the Navy is there for?

[ceejayoz]

The Navy was present during every incident listed on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz#Events, including seizures of oil tankers and cargo ships. Minefields are also a handy option. Iran can and has disrupted traffic through the strait; it's an effective threat even if they can't keep the US Navy out.

[bayesian_horse]

Yes the Iranian Navy can pester a commercial ship here and there. They can't blockade the entire Hormuz street and even if they ramped up those seizures too much, they'd draw an international response they wouldn't like. Iran can't want a shoot out with the US in any form...