[mannerheim]

Except Russia has had spies do precisely that in the past in Estonia? They even did a prisoner exchange for a guy who got caught.

> An unredacted five-page document tells a fuller story than anything Zinchenko offered in our four hours together. Vasily was one of three different handlers over the space of his eight years as a GRU agent. (Zinchenko would tell me only that Vasily introduced him to another man with whom he’d sometimes communicate.) He’d meet with each one face-to-face at liaisons in St. Petersburg, only a five-hour car or bus ride from Tallinn. Each handler tasked him with surveilling Estonia’s “objects of national defense” and its “vital services,” defined under Estonian law as critical infrastructure, power and electricity, telecommunications and banking services.

> Zinchenko spied on Paldiski, a garrison town where Estonia’s elite Scouts Battalion, a veteran unit of both the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, was stationed. He also spied on Vasalemma, where NATO’s Ämari Air Base is located.

https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-ex-russian-spy-flees-to-the...

[bbbbb5]

This is typical busy work given to agents to make them feel important, to test their loyalty and ability to accomplish tasks provided. For the most part, it's not actually supposed to result in useful intelligence.

Also there's a huge difference between tracking military equipment movements and power infrastructure. Power infrastructure doesn't move and can't really be hidden.

[mannerheim]

Apparently valuable enough to do a prisoner exchange for.

I also doubt the quality of the optics in Russian satellites.

[LarryMullins]

> I also doubt the quality of the optics in Russian satellites.

Uh, why? I can understand doubting the electronics in their satellites, but the mirrors? Why do you think Russia can't polish mirrors?

[mannerheim]

The US is so tight-lipped about its spy satellites, even the resolution of their images are classified, and it forces US commercial satellite operators to degrade image resolution as well. Maybe I'm wrong, but if it were trivial to do, then someone should launch a satellite imaging startup outside of US jurisdiction.

[LarryMullins]

> even the resolution of their images are classified

Yeah, but physics isn't. Good resolution requires large mirrors. Large mirrors require large satellites. These aren't cubesats we're talking about; optical American spy satellites have 2.4 meter wide mirrors and are more than 10 meters long. The only non-US/Chinese/Russian rocket that can launch such a satellite in principle is the Ariane 5, but AFAIK they don't fly that to polar orbits.

In any case, not many people have the equipment laying around to make such large mirrors, or the expertise, or a stockpile of such mirrors. Russia likely has all three, or certainly once did.

[bbbbb5]

>Apparently valuable enough to do a prisoner exchange for.

You don't do prisoner exchanges because of the valuable contributions of that agent, you do prisoner exchanges to ensure future contributions by other agents.

>I also doubt the quality of the optics in Russian satellites.

They're just fine. What kind of quality do you think they need to hit a power plant with a missile? Most of their missiles aren't that precise anyway.

There's only an extremely limited set of circumstances where drone footage of power infrastructure could be useful.

[mannerheim]

In any event, Russia does send spies to do precisely what you insisted they don't.

[bbbbb5]

Your article says nothing about the nature of the surveillance. It does not in any way dispute my previous comments.

[ithkuil]

Nepotism can provide an alternative explanation for prisoner exchange even if the actual task was literally busywork

[bbbbb5]

If it was about nepotism, we'd presumably be talking about an officer and not an agent.

[denton-scratch]

> I also doubt the quality of the optics in Russian satellites.

Doesn't Leica have a reputation for world-beating optics?