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Sooner or later, email will either die or get better. The problem with email for most of its life was that there was little competition. Certainly SMTP has never had a serious rival. IMAP came to challenge POP, and won: this made email better. And Exchange has certainly set a standard that IMAP and webmail providers have had to meet. But it's not much compared to the seething shark tank that the web has been for the last twenty years. Sooner or later I think a RESTful HTTP or SPDY API will replace IMAP, and (for client-server comms at least) SMTP. I think ccLoop is a side-issue, because they were addressing the problem of mailing list management. Contactually's approach seems to be wrong-headed to me, making the user send and receive more emails! But really it's more of a CRM system than a step forward for email, so perhaps it's solving a problem I don't have. At comms.io, we're writing an email client. The idea is to work with IMAP, take on the lessons of Gmail, but modernize the experience, make it lightweight and transparent. If you've seen the Gmail interface lately, what I mean by lightweight is the opposite of that. Anyone who's interested in helping out, do get in touch. |
"replace" is a strong word. IMAP (version 4 that most things use these days) has not replaced POP3, but is a much-improved alternative that is well supported on the server-side and client-side. the reason it was able to gain such popularity was that the spec (RFC 2060) came out in 1996. how many different POP3 clients were even around back then? (according to wikipedia, outlook express 1.0 came out in 1996.) a lot of people at that time were probably still reading mbox files in pine through a telnet session or never e-mailed anyone outside of AOL.
The problem with email for most of its life was that there was little competition.
and now e-mail is so prevalent that making changes to the core protocols like SMTP, POP3, and IMAP is nearly impossible. we've been living with SMTP since 1982.
every provider that supports IMAP still has to support POP3: google, yahoo, AOL, MSN, and probably every university and ISP. SPDY will never completely replace HTTP, so sites using it will always have to run both servers in parallel, just like IPv6 will have to run alongside IPv4 for many years to come.
for a new protocol to replace SMTP or even augment it, it would have to be designed, refined, turned into an RFC, then probably debated some more, and then support would have to be added to all of the major MTAs like sendmail, postfix, qmail, and exchange, along with many firewalls, spam filters, and other in-between devices. clients need to support it, so that's outlook express, thunderbird, iphone, android, blackberry, and every other little device and program that speaks it. getting the manufacturers or maintainers to implement support for new things is hard enough, but actually getting all of their customers to switch or upgrade is an even bigger problem (see IE6, DNSSEC, etc.).
maybe it's the rate of change in things like HTML and CSS over the past few years that gives the false impression of being so easy to do.