[mrblampo]

This was super interesting, and it would seem Bill Gates absolutely predicted the effect that not Java, but ultimately interactive web apps in a broad sense would come to have by making it less important to have one operating system or another.

Interesting that the reply mostly implied that there wasn't much reason to worry, and that the future and dominance of web apps was still uncertain. But we are reading this email exchange now I think largely because of how well placed Bill Gates's worries were. I wonder how many technologies he and other executives lost sleep over that did not amount to anything in the long run.

[rusticpenn]

The reply was on point and serious . Mainframe still exists and generates billions in revenue. Windows/ Microsoft lost their foothold in a new market. However Microsoft is also transforming into a cloud first company.

[dmarchand90]

Also the reply gives reasonable time estimates: 20 years. I think this is about right as web apps clear dominance wouldn't be until roughly the mid 2010s anyway

[pjmlp]

Well the cloud is the new mainframe, hence why "Azure OS" is the new Windows.

[rusticpenn]

Cloud is not the new mainframe. Maybe in 15 years.

[pjmlp]

It surely is from the point of view of timesharing and thin clients, and I am not sure if I wouldn't rather use JCL instead of YAML.

[thejammahimself]

In the reply though he said:

> Pundits always say that this is going to kill the old businesses - eventually that happens but not anywhere near as soon as they say.

So to me maybe he was implying that he did think that web apps would eventually take over, just not at a rapid speed.

[blowski]

Perhaps Microsoft's internet strategy of the late 90s changed the trajectory, just as they intended after seeing the impending doom.

[rrrrrrrrrrrryan]

I'm surprised nobody here is discussing how Java did cause Microsoft to lose a ton of OS market share.

Gates's fears were tremendously prescient: They completely lost the mobile OS market to Android.