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by theshrike79 1268 days ago
Current synthetic fuels cost around 10€/litre, which comes to around $37/gallon.

Not really viable for day to day use yet.

5 comments

I live in the Netherlands and we're almost there! ;)

No not really but, when it peaked I saw 2.40 eur/litre (9.71$/gallon, now down to 1.80 eur/litre) in places... Of course, much of that is taxes, but hey, this stuff would receive a lot of subsidies.

Fwiw, I once (4 years ago or so?) spoke to someone from an ICE conference (a parallel conference to my breast cancer conference) who explained that ICE's can be made 100% clean (just output CO2 and H2O) and 100% circular (take all that emitted CO2 out of the air again), it's just an economic consideration, technologically we are there (I guess that is true for many if not most environment related technologies, we just never take environmental damage along in the price of products, in a way we make them artificially cheap).

Imagine if the fuel could be sold as carbon negative. i.e They will (somehow) plant more trees or take the same amount of CO2 from air for every CO2 fuel you burn on top of the CO2 they collect back to make the synthetic fuel.
If some % of the fuel burned turns into some chemically stable carbon waste and 100% of the carbon in the fuel came from stuff that was grown recently then it would be carbon negative.
Yes, but that price is not determined by cost. It's determined by taxes.
Qatar claims their Methanol-to-Gasoline based factory is profitable at a world price of $40 a barrel based on natural gas as a feed stock.

What people are hoping for today is to get CO₂ from the atmosphere and hydrogen from H₂O with electricity from solar, wind or nuclear. (Though w/ nuclear you might use thermochemical hydrogen if you can get the temperature up)

The best use case for that I've seen is that the US Navy would like to synthesize jet fuel on aircraft carriers so they don't have to slow down to take on fuel from a tanker -- delivering fuel to an aircraft carrier has to cost more than it costs at your local gas station.

Also I think there is more interest in synthetic fuel for airplanes than cars. That Mazda could almost as easily have been run on ethanol, methanol or maybe even butanol. Even methane isn't that hard. Diesel engines can be run on Dimethyl Ether. Single-entity fuels are more efficient to make than synthetic fuels based on long-chain hydrocarbons.

Aviation, on the other hand, is a place where innovation goes to die, where airlines struggle to replace obsolete electronics, where the #1 and #2 aircraft in the world were designed in 1967 and 1982, etc. (... it wouldn't even be legal to sell a car based on a 1982 design!)

That's crazy cheap. I think oil sands here in canada can have a minimum break even point of up to 80$/barrel, and it still seems to be profitable most of the time. So you are right that there is quite a bit of room for more costly alternatives.
Using methanol to make synthetic gasoline is just bonkers.

You can just use the methanol to run cars. CNG/CBG cars have existed for well over a decade.

Not to mention leaded fuel still being a thing in aviation
Not anymore. You need to update your talking points.

The FAA got off their butts and approved the unloaded substitute in 2022 and it's starting to roll out.

Airports want it ASAP because the (IIRC) ~20% higher cost is a cheap price to pay to not have to listen to people complain.

You haven’t refuted anything. It’s still a thing.

“On February 23, 2022, the FAA joined aviation and petroleum industry stakeholders to announce a comprehensive public-private partnership to transition to lead-free aviation fuels for piston-engine aircraft by the end of 2030.”

https://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/avgas

Avgas 100LL is going to be around for a good long period of time. Not a single local airport around me locally has rolled out the new fuel yet so I’m not sure I believe your point about airports wanting it ASAP
Not on aircraft carriers. They only handle jet fuel.
Yeah leaded fuel is only for piston engines. I can't actually imagine leaded fuel working in jet engines, even if they can usually take a wide range of fuels.
Not viable yet.

But with greater adoption and more focus the prices are bound to fall.

And the prices of alternatives will be rising, both electricity and hydrocarbon fuels.

Also EVs seem to not be the answer to everything. If you live in a colder climate, out of grid or you need to drive long distances, it is not clear when on whether EVs will become practical for you.

That depends.

What is the cost of the environmental damage from traditionals?

What is the real cost of the military used to guarantee the delivery of traditionals?

That is the opportunity cost of that same military expense?

Oil refineries, they have a cost.

What happens to the cost of synthetics as production volume increases?

Etc.

We need to consider the full cost landscape, not simply gallon v gallon.

Yeah, because current fuel prices - especially in countries like the USA are fake.