Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by SantalBlush 1270 days ago
>It's a common misconception that the unemployment rate spikes (spikes, not fluctuates slightly higher) before recessions

I'm not talking about using the unemployment rate as a leading indicator, which is what you're describing here.
1 comments
Izkata 1270 days ago
> > that evidence strongly suggests that we are not in one

The unemployment part can't indicate current state either because it usually doesn't spike until months afterwards. We can easily be in a recession with unemployment still being low.

link
SantalBlush 1270 days ago
>The unemployment part can't indicate current state either

Yes, it can. Nonfarm payroll employment--along with GDP--is one of the key measures used by the NBER in their determination of whether or not we're in a recession, so it is by definition a current indicator. You are stating that it's not a sufficient indicator in determining a recession, which is correct, but that's not what I was saying anyway. Unemployment is absolutely a relevant measure here, and you are wrong.

link