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by aorist 1270 days ago
> The first large failed project was a request for us to attribute all forecasts to fundamental business drivers, and automatically explain the reason for all forecast misses.

This is described as an "Insane Business Request", but it seems like a useful business question to be able to answer, although maybe scientifically difficult.

> Most scientific problems I’ve worked on could be solved by a correct representation of an empirical distribution in a histogram. The next largest group needed a linear regression. The final group needed a statistical model from the first chapter of a PhD textbook.

A mentor once told me that the best way to get started in a new modelling field is to read all the cutting edge papers, and then actually implement whatever baseline model they're claiming to improve upon.