[hyperpape]

> I didn't say that inflation would reappear at 5.99% unemployment.

I didn't say you did, just that you haven't said anything to motivate the 6-8% number. It's plausible sounding, but as far as what you've said so far, you might as well have drawn those numbers out of a hat.

[lamontcg]

Because it took 5 years from 2015-2020 for unemployment to fall from 6% to 3.5%, and during that period wage growth was between 3% to 4.5%, which is consistent with the Fed's desire to keep wage growth in line with their 2% inflation target adjusted for productivity gains.

The 8% number is motivated by the fact that the economy is highly nonlinear and the Fed really doesn't control how bad the next recession is going to be. It could, of course, be even worse.