[oneoff786]

Those recessions were much harder to predict. Suppose a solar flare destroys all electronics. Will we enter a recession? Yes. Obviously yes.

Right now we face an energy, food, and fertilizer shortage. Will that cause a recession? Almost certainly. Or at least it’s a downwards effect. Maybe you think the economies will grow more than they shrink in spite of this for other reasons. But this is a rare easily observed negative pressure for everyone.