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by dragonwriter 1271 days ago
The fact that you were responding to an incorrect description does not make your description that “The low unemployment rate indicates we’re likely either in or about to start a recession” correct. 1+1=3 is wrong, but that doesn’t make the response “1+1 is actually 1” correct.
1 comments

Allow me to repeat: spikes, not fluctuates slightly higher.

1948, 1953, 1960, 1974, 1980, 2001, and 2008 all fit what I said.

1957, 1970, 1981, and kind-of 1990 are the exceptions.

As for the extended low unemployment... If you ignore the covid anomaly (as most people seem to since it wasn't a natural market reaction but caused by lockdowns), we're at the same 3 years of the previous maximum duration.