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by gruez
1263 days ago
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>Signs I look for of an impending recession: >Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy That's not borne out by the data. If you look at the graph for inflation[1], you see that falling inflation comes after recessions (helpfully shaded grey), not before. In other words, by the time you see stagflation, you're already deep in recession, or it has already passed. Therefore using it as a sign for "impending" recession makes no sense. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA |
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