[jonnathanson]

There's a big assumption in this logic: that most people who date online are looking to get married.

A lot of people use online dating simply to hook up -- the virtual equivalent of approaching someone at the local bar, only with a lot of the potential awkwardness pre-vetted out. Though many of the biggest dating sites advertise themselves as places to get married, the use cases often tell a different story. That's not the fault of the sites, so much as the predominance of "off-label" use by the customers. (And the fairly recent plethora of hookup-specific online dating services are catering to an existing trend, not trying to create a new one.)

Frankly, none of this should surprise us. Many young people are primarily interested in casual sex. Still others are pursuing a try-before-you-buy strategy, and even among those people, the intent to "buy" is nebulous and flexible.

I have no doubt that a large contingent of online daters are genuinely using these services to find The One, and are earnestly focused on dating. But I'd be very curious to see what percentage this userbase represents. My gut tells me it may not even be a majority.

[bunderbunder]

Another big assumption: That monogamy is synonymous with marriage. (Or, conversely, that not wanting to get married is a sign of promiscuity.)

During the time period the article talks about, that equation has been scuttled. The gay marriage kerfuffle has led to the invention of domestic partnership as a legal status. It's a serious contender against marriage, since the laws are usually set up such that domestic partners can enjoy many of the same privileges traditionally reserved for married folks, while avoiding many of the laws that can potentially financially punish a couple for getting married.

And it's generally not included in figures about marriage rates. Which means that comparing a marriage rate statistic from this century to one from the previous century is not apples-to-apples.