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by mcbits 1269 days ago
Even with almost everyone vaccinated and/or repeatedly exposed to the virus to refresh their immunity, the virus killed over 70,000 in the US in that last 6 months and over 250,000 in the last year.

In the first months of the pandemic, healthcare workers spent 14-hour shifts surrounded by deathly ill patients and still only rarely caught it themselves thanks to their PPE, in particular the masks that were invented for this very purpose.

It's obvious what could actually eradicate this virus that has multiplied the flu (which was already an annual crisis) ten-fold. Maybe next time a rapidly developed and deployed vaccine will do it, but not this time.

2 comments

It's obvious that nothing could actually eradicate this virus. Even if you somehow magically eliminated it from every human there are still multiple animal reservoirs that are impossible to control. Someone would just catch it from another mammal again and the pandemic would restart.
It is? Or did you leave out a "not"? "Everyone wearing PPE all the time" is hardly an "obvious" solution...
Not all the time and only for a few months. It would have worked in 2020 if people had access to real PPE (not bandanas and chin straps). And if we didn't have large employers like Publix and the NY Dept of Corrections prohibiting their employees from wearing the PPE that they already had. Many lessons are available to be learned by those willing.
That is an oversimplified solution. Access to masks was only a small part of the problem. Many people were simply unwilling to wear them. Access to N95 or kn95 masks became quite available within a few months of the shortages and people continued to wear bandanas and home made cloth.
This seems to be china's approach, plenty of masking and social distancing and lock downs still. And yet it has failed to stop the virus. It is notable that china's traditional vaccine has been less effective than the mRNA and they are sitting at 9,000 deaths a day compared to a few hundred for the us right now.
China doesn't have widespread free (K)N95 mask use either. There's not enough production even in China. Yet they're still faring better than the US so far.

Adjusting for population, the US peaked at the equivalent of 15,000/day after vaccination was underway and most places got rid of mask mandates, followed by a peak at the equivalent of 8,500/day after more than half the population was vaccinated, and another one around 12,000/day with 2/3 to 3/4 of the population being partially to fully vaccinated. Now it's been steadily the equivalent of 1,200 to 2,000/day going on 9 months even though almost everyone should have plenty of immunity from both vaccination and repeated exposure. The numbers are lower than they would be without vaccination, but this isn't sustainable. We know what does work.

It’s not an either or though right?. Don’t you need to do masks AND vaccines?

AFAIK countries that effectively masked and distanced until they had a vaccine flattened the curve significantly and their medical system was never overwhelmed. The US is a terrible example because they failed to follow their own pandemic guidelines (Africa did and fared better if I recall correctly).

With vaccines you can be more cavalier with masks - even if you don’t wear it and are near someone with COVID you’re less likely to get it. And when you do, you weather it significantly better. Even ignoring problems of comfort and fit that continue to plague although the “duck” masks with over head loops instead of over ear I’ve found to be reasonably comfortable. Masks are challenging logistically in various environments like dining and just from a social bonding / nicety.

It’s also important to remember that there’s a significant anti-vax movement in the States so no. We’re not fully vaccinated. And the virus mutates like the flu. So you need to keep up to date with shots. Yes. It’s not 100% effective. But it’s an added security measure because perfect masking just doesn’t happen and logistically isn’t possible. With a pandemic (now epidemic) like this you have to deploy multiple measures (masks, vaccines, social distancing), not just one I think - multi pronged battle. The interesting part is that people are reverting to pre-COVID behaviors which makes sense since pre-COVID is the same as post-Spanish flu so COVID is here to stay permanent I think.

> AFAIK countries that effectively masked ...

... don't exist. There is still not enough production of the types of masks that are known and shown to be effective.

> even if you don’t wear it and are near someone with COVID you’re less likely to get it.

That was the hope, but it's not nearly as true as it needs to be.

> And when you do, you weather it significantly better.

And continue spreading it.

> So you need to keep up to date with shots.

And keep up with producing and distributing N95 masks to actually solve the problem.

> With a pandemic (now epidemic)

Wordplay with no bearing on reality.

> you have to deploy multiple measures (masks, vaccines, social distancing)

Sure. Defense in depth. Vaccines, especially vaccines that grossly fail to live up to expectations, aren't enough.

> pre-COVID is the same as post-Spanish flu

Blatantly false. It's still killing several multiples of the flu. And now the flu is back on top of that.

> COVID is here to stay permanent I think.

Probably true. People are stupid.