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by ggm 1275 days ago
He needs an editor. It's too long, it rambles, it uses language repetitively like "western elites" who exactly does this mean, beyond hand waving dislike of academia? Last time I looked a room full of academics was a disagreement, not really influential to public policy.

The agencies engaged in China are mostly commercial like Tesla, apple, car manufacturing and media like News Ltd. Intellectuals my arse!

There's a point to be made, and it's made: do not trust propaganda coming out of China which disagrees with basic measurements you can make from outside, or comparable situations outside which disagree by orders of magnitude in health and economics. Do not trust any licence or contract which retains substantive control inside China of a bilateral outcome, without significant evidence of mutual benefit to the state.

Accusations against intellectuals and politicians in the west are at best polemic, and at worst bad faith. The author appears to want to bash western intellectuals they disagree with.

Very little we do in the west would alter the trajectory inside China, and parallels with interwar Germany are over stated: the modern state of China post 49, at no point has been subject to partition (Taiwan and Hong Kong noted) or oversight or forced to pay reparations. It's grievance with the global free market economics is about the cynicism of trade agreements, the historical disagreement over Taiwan & Hong Kong and the utility inside China of harping on about Japan, Britain and the west's perfidy over time. Calling out a protest against Japan or Britain is as trivial for the Chinese state as it is for the Iranians to remind people about Jimmy Carters helicopter fiasco.

If you want realistic views on China, talk to Vietnam. The Vietnamese I know from inside that economy are careful how they engage for a reason: little brother grew up, big brother doesn't fully understand it.

China hasn't invaded anywhere outside its own territory for a long time. (Other states dispute what its own territory is, eg the spratleys) It bickers with India along a border. China draws attention to western military forces having been active in multiple unrelated territories consistently across the same timeframe: this is a point of some substance inside China, and in client states in Africa and pacific Islands. They sell this story to source "Coltan": we invest in you for minerals and fish: repression inside your own polity is your own business. Contrast this with world bank economic obligations or social requirements to get western funding. (We're not wrong to seek the social justice. It's hurt us economically because China doesn't and pays well)

Australia and New Zealand dropped the ball in their own backyard, China picked it up. There's been a massive about face by the west reinvesting in the places China opportunistically invested in, for fisheries rights and for future military/police relationships. China asks for friendly faces in votes at the UN and related agencies on matters which don't directly affect the states it engages in. It's a low bar, easy payback. It probably has raised the price for western re-engagement which is of course beneficial for those same states.

The spratleys and the other islands and sandbars of the China Sea are the major worry. The Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore and japan have food for thought there. Australia's refusal to accept international court jurisdiction over its bullying and spying of East Timor undermined its own standing in the same courts acting against what China is doing.

I accused the author of rambling. I've committed the same offence.

2 comments

China and Xi’s action in Hong Kong is speaks volumes on its intent. The West’s inaction also speaks volumes.

The comparison to Nazi Germany is on point.

> The comparison to Nazi Germany is on point.

Hardly. Hitler and his cronies were driven by a level of crazy that outdid most of the other autocracies of the 20th century. Just two examples:

* Starting a war of conquest that utterly destroyed Germany itself.

* Murdering millions of Europeans in the name of anti-semitic racial theories developed decades earlier. (Hitler and Goebbels were quite clear about this long before they came to power.)

There are many more. China's rise looks more like great power politics.

Nice strawman.

If you want to go there, the CCP has its own brand of horrible (The Great Leap Forward) which in some ways is worse, as it continues to treat even its own Han majority as disposable.

That's completely true. But my point is that comparing them to Nazis is at best misleading and at worst actively harmful if you want to reason about what happened then and what's happening.

Perhaps it's more useful to look at figures like Stalin and Pol Pot to understand what happened in the Great Leap Forward. Or from Chinese history itself.

And to understand the current situation and how to react to it (from the point of view of American strategy) you need to look at comparisons that include nuclear and naval power. In some ways what's going on now in the Eastern Pacific looks like a replay of the Japan/US rivalry with a more formidable adversary operating on interior lines. As for nuclear issues, look at the Cold War. (If only because we got out of that one without incinerating the planet.)

<rant> I'm an American and find the constant Nazi analogies really tiresome. It's as if everyone's knowledge of history comes from WW II movies. GGPs post was a thoughtful and enjoyable contrast. </rant>

Wondering what the genocide of millions of Uyghur is driven by and well we're already far into the preparations for the "war of conquest" part.
Cultural genocide isn't the same as actual genocide. Pretending they are in order to make a comparison with Nazi Germany isn't going to pass muster.
Huh? Of course it is. It's in the name.
The suffix "-cide" means "kill." See also: "pesticide," "regicide," and "patricide." Reeducation camps are not mass killing camps. The Nazis committed genocide in the Oxford Languages definition.
A strawman argument doesn’t “pass muster” either, seeing as how neither I nor the article focuses on the genocide—that wasn’t the point.

Though I’m certain you know all of this already.

The comment the GP comment was responding to was about genocide. I'm certain you didn't know that already, or you wouldn't have posted the parent comment.
It's pretty awful but does not seem to rise to the level of Nazi extermination camps as far as I can tell. Seeing it through the lens of the Nazi regime does not seem either illuminating or helpful to stop it.
Its intent to treat Hong Kong like the rest of China? How is that anything like Hitler's intent to conquer Europe? The author is as delusional about China as he is about democratically elected governments using COVID to gain permanent control over their citizens.

Yes, Xi is bad, and we should not want to be governed as Xi governs, but there is absolutely no risk of this happening outside the areas China controls or claims it should control.

9 years ago, China floated a claim to Okinawa: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/may/15/china-okinawa-...
Japan's refusal to fully acknowledge comfort women, and the evils of the co-prosperity sphere is feeding opposition in countries as diametrically different as south Korea and china.

If they want to defuse tension, stopping writing their history books as white out and celebrating yasakuni shrine war criminals would be a good start, based on the west German experience. I don't love the federal Republic of Germany or the CDU but they aren't in denial about 33-45.

No amount of prostrating will ever appease every faction, such as Polish conservatives regard Germany. It's all irrelevant anyhow as Japan and Germany are about distant from their pre-war selves in terms of militarism and nationalism as any country on this planet. What's actually keeping these debates alive are cultural enmities which predate WWII by centuries. That's why you don't see, e.g., Vietnam constantly making a fuss about American reverence for their soldiers who fought and killed Vietnamese--the history just isn't there to support that kind of national grudge even if there are plenty of individuals who might be bothered by it.
I probably agree with this in substance. It's an independent good of it's own accord akin to British public recognition of its role in slavery but probably has next to no real impact on the deep time resentments inside China.
> the People's Daily, ran an article in which two Chinese academics challenged Japan's sovereignty over the Ryukyu chain of islands, which includes Okinawa.

This is Beijing's policy about as much as Fox News' rantings were GOP or Trump Administration policy. Beijing holds a leash and can tighten or loosen at will, but to that extent it's still just saber rattling and fodder for domestic politics. Just like with American media, such opinions deserve attention only after after a long-term, durable pattern of specific policy preferences which see significant uptake by the political machine.

> How is that anything like Hitler's intent to conquer Europe?

I thought you were hinting at the Anschluss, but here is something to think about: why does Putin invade Georgia, Moldavia, Ukraine? The answer is that dictatorships ultimately have to eat outside its borders, because for a productive society you need to have a broad middle class, allow dissent, foster debate, allow ideas to spring up so as to make sure society can progress, keep the rule of law, have an accountable government etc. Instead, if you want to make it you will need to be part of the Party. You need the favor of those that are closer to the center of the power. Your business can be closed any day, you have no say about what new legislation will be put in place. All the power and capital will accumulate at the center of the party.

The rule of dictators tend to end with a bang. The bad thing is: the surveillance is on such an evil level that it will be really hard for the people to rise up and free themselves. They can only hope for a power struggle in the highest echelons. These are dark days..

> Its intent to treat Hong Kong like the rest of China? How is that anything like Hitler's intent to conquer Europe?

Have we already forgotten Tibet?

Largely yes, we have. De facto most western powers prefer not to engage on the topic. They're also pretty apathetic about Uigher issues. I find that depressing too. China used to make a lot of noise about tolerance for minorities, the re-education camps are a sign of deep seated fears. Flooding Tibet with a han Chinese overclass, is pretty much complete now.
The CCP has always claimed Tibet was part of China, with the Similar Convention not signed by any representative of China. China does not lay claim to Europe, the entirety of Asia, or anything like that.
Autocorrect does not like Simla.
> Very little we do in the west would alter the trajectory inside China,

We altered the trajectory by making a pact with Mao, who bears the honor of more killings on his name than Hitler.

> Accusations against intellectuals and politicians in the west are at best polemic, and at worst bad faith. The author simply wants to bash western intellectuals they disagree with.

I think your criticism is a bit shallow here. Kissinger did sell the pact with Mao as a strategic outmaneuver of the Soviet Union. But his main point is that "Wandel durch Handel" (as the Germans insisted on in the last decades towards Russia despite US warnings) is just an eufemism of "lets make money".

I guess you'd have seen how big western brands bend over to China to betray human values. Apple, Tesla, Google you name it, they all sold their soul (if there would have been anything left) for more, more.

The result is that in the West people gets cynical or don't think about human values as worthy to uphold anymore. Its a slippery slope. To the surprise of the autocrats, we are not morally dead yet. Putin thought we would bend over again for some coins, calculating that we already went in a deadly, eternal sleep. Us acting for once altered Xi's calculation wrt Taiwan.

> China hasn't invaded anywhere outside its own territory for a long time

You should wonder why every neighbor of China is wary or is having a conflict right now. You should pay closer attention to Hong Kong, look even more closely how the Party deals with Han-Chinese vs non Han Chinese, and how any one not Chinese enough ends up in a concentration camp.

> (We're not wrong to seek the social justice. It's hurt us economically because China doesn't and pays well)

"We're not wrong..." You are missing the forest for the trees I am afraid. One of the central themes of the CCP and Putin is that they support autocracies and try to thwart democracies. The biggest threat to any autocratic leader is democracy, the rule of law and innate rights for the people. They call their disgust for those matters as striving for multi-polarity. The rule based world order is what they try to overthrow. For that, they need support from the oligarchs in the West. They need their capital and the knowledge of the free world. Our billionaires brought it, they are bending more on request.

This is not just hurting us a a by product, it is a win-win for the CCP.

This is a bit ahistorical. "We" made a pact with Mao because it was expedient in war against Japan. We made a pact with Stalin for the same reason, and Tito. Chiang Kai Shek wasn't able to keep control and had actively collaborated with Japanese forces when it suited him.

Western arms did not prevent or provoke CSKs abandonment of the mainland. Mao wasn't armed by the west.

Mao's insane famine inducing policy, his rapprochement with the USSR and breakup, his involvement in the Korean war was all in the future, as was Kissinger and Nixon. At the time, needing bases to bomb the Japanese heartland, making a pact with Mao made sense. Do you argue otherwise from non post-hoc reasoning?

My biggest fear is a post-Xi destabilising China-internal fight for control. It's more likely it leans to Russia than not. No claimant to controlling the Chinese autocracy will want to look weak and agreeing to western norms will look weak, where selling arms to a fellow autocrat and sourcing cheap oil looks clever.

Xi must be weaker now than he's ever been, caving in on covid restrictions caused predictable chaos. He's off-brand. It's worrisome.