[sangnoir]

I think this one is a little different because the Federal reserve is trying to induce a downturn, i.e. lower consumer demand in order to fight inflation. In spite of the Fed's efforts, consumer demand remains stubbornly high, as are unfilled job openings.

[osigurdson]

Since it is being manufactured to some extent it should have a very predictable trajectory.

[hattmall]

It's not really though, look at the reverse repos. The fed is literally playing both sides of the board. Raising interest rates to squeeze private equity and housing but injecting trillions to keep commodity and equity prices inflated. There is a very real and growing recession / equity crash, the fed has been inflating the market with reverse repos since early 21 to keep the markets somewhat stable. (2 Trillion, extremely unprecedented, look at the max table on St Louis Fed) That has resulted in inflation because the actual economic growth is not occuring. The only way to keep the GDP from showing a drop is for prices to go up outside of the inflation index. Part of the reason for the official calculation formula change recently. The trajectory here is anything but predictable.

[yourapostasy]

Yeah, it seems a little crazy to me the FOMC FFR decisions are burying the lede on RRP and TGA activities. I can't think of another similar period in Federal Reserve and Treasury history to compare to.

FOMC = Federal Open Market Committee

FFR = Federal Funds Rate

RRP = Reverse Repo Facility

TGA = Treasury General Account