| My thinking (some of these may take a year or two more) - we start understanding more about how powerful neural networks can be in storing abstractions of information. More and more breakthroughs come here. A company will come that will do magical things - this company will not be Open AI or one of the big FAANG - Maybe not this year, but soon: new advances started in robotics based on generative AI. Robots start moving in far more realistic ways - we enter an extended stock market downturn and it does not recover till end of year. Companies trade at low multiples of revenue - German car companies aggressively catch up with Tesla in terms of design - Europe closes up more to migrants - There is a Russia/Ukraine settlement, with Ukraine getting a fast track entry to the EU. - African countries start de-facto redrawing their boarders. Ethiopia, Cameroun, maybe Nigeria - China invades Taiwan with the largest invasion force ever seen - The drone becomes the primary weapon of war. Every other weapon becomes secondary. New wars start based on drone - The value of Tesla drops down to 30% of where it currently is - The USD weakens significantly. - More mRNA treatments start being used. Sickle cell and other genetic diseases are first target |