[hackinthebochs]

This is what is called over-updating on a single event. Probably the key difference is that each soviet republic was already a discrete identity based on ethnic, cultural, and historic ties, and so the default was simply to revert to that identity. For a state with no clear discrete sub-identities, nor with enough economic or military autonomy to survive as an independent state, civil war becomes much more likely as these lines are forcibly drawn.

[trasz3]

Current Russia has plenty of sub-identities though. It’s the worlds last colonial empire, and the division lines are obvious to everyone there. The only thing keeping it all together is the army and police.

(Cf https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1600551806429544452.html)

[hackinthebochs]

Informative thread, so thanks for that. This seems to be the key issue:

>Ethnicity, race and culture is not enough for the new states to work out. For them to succeed they must be able to pay their bills. Ergo, the principle of economic clusters will be at least as important for defining their borders as the ethnic or cultural one

Which one wins out? The fact that there is a conflict between economic cluster and ethnic cluster seems to strongly raise the likelihood of a civil war.

[yywwbbn]

Yes, but those parts that’s potentially might want to leave Russia are not geographically and economically significant compared to the rest of Russia.

[trasz3]

Siberia is way more significant than western Russia. That’s one of the pieces we’re commonly missing: Moscow is a hollow parasite.

[sasattack]

"Last colonial empire " Have you heard of the United States of America? Standing rock was like only a few years ago my guy