[Veedrac]

> they’d be the only vehicle manufacturer left on earth who will nearly capture the entire market

TSLA definitely has meme stock energy, but its current valuation is not quite that high.

If Tesla's revenue grows 6x at the same margins, P/E falls to 7. Under the unrealistic claim that prices don't fall, that's only 8m cars/year, and also only modest energy sales. 6x growth is not that far away, sans hitting a demand wall. They are aiming for 20m cars/year long term, which is harder but also allows room for the profit per car to halve.

I would expect investors to also believe in at least either the long-term prospects of FSD or Tesla's energy business. FSD could clearly double-or-more long-term profitability, were it working well enough, and the energy market is huge.

Note that you would presumably lose regulatory credits in the long term, but Q3 2022 credits were already down to ~1.3% of revenue, so not that significant.