[japaneseminisub]

There are some really great insights in here, particularly #7. We've used similar heuristics to identify if we are thinking roughly the same thing ie, if someones ballpark is wildly different from the norm its great to understand why.

It could be that there is extra knowledge/context or that its unfamiliar. Both are valuable to understand.

However I think the author is missing the point of estimates; to align multiple streams of business activity. Sure in the example they gave it seems like there are few dependencies but in the vast majority of situations there are.

The launch month determines things like marketing activity, budgeting, hiring, internal/external training and so on.

Its also useful for program directors/c-suite to identify critical paths across all streams and react accordingly.

Estimates are a necessary evil, but should never be treated as a commitment