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First gen Leafs don't sell very well for exactly the reasons you mention, but the TCO for the 3rd or 4th owner of a vehicle is hard to calculate regardless. 10+ year old cars end up needing major work like a valve job or a timing belt, or some emissions thing if you're somewhere that checks that. Battery packs aren't alone in having this lurking unseen potential cost. Most Americans can't just absorb $1k+ of work to keep their car running, even if the engine is technically fine and could last another 200k miles. If your argument is that EVs won't take off because fresh batteries aren't cheap, I mean, you're right, they're not. The refurb battery market is huge though. Instead of paying the dealer a couple grand for a brand new pack, Uncle Joe or the local cheap mechanic, and YouTube University can do it, often for as cheap as couple hundred, with practice. Plus less waste for the environment. Given the millions of EVs already sold though, and the various EV-only mandates globally, I think it's moot because they're already here, unlike 3D TV which had no such government mandate. The average used car price from a dealer in November was $31k, and a 2012 Tesla Model S can be had for around that much (Nissan Leaf even less than that), so I think the electrified future's already here. Just gotta let it percolate out to the rest of us. You could be right though, I don't have a time machine :)
It's just EVs are so stupidly much easier under the hood. No PCV valves, no carb or fuel injectors, or O2 sensors, no emissions crap. There's still some complexity, but it's just not the same. |