[nicoburns]

That assumes a free market. The UK where I live is planning to ban new sales of ICE cars from 2030 and hybrids from 2035. At that point, you either buy an EV or nothing at all (of course, the used market won't transition until later, but that will effectively be on a deadline too once new sales are stopped).

Personally I think 2035 is a more than realistic deadline for affordable EVs and the charging infrastructure to go with it. And the pre-announced deadline should hopefully give companies the confidence they need to invest in these technologies ahead of time.

There will then be another tipping point when ICE/hybrid ownership declines to the point that starts being uneconomical for filling stations to remain open and they start disappearing. At which point ICE cars will be decidedly inconvenient.

[jmspring]

It is possible that "infrastructure" may become feasible in smaller countries like the UK. However, it is far from feasible in large countries like the US. Heck, even here in California, we are under the same future bans of ICE, etc. in the 2030 timeframe. This state can not even keep the electricity on with current consumption patterns.

Personally, I have two ICE vehicles and plan on keeping them running and in good shape for a long time (one is 7 years old, the other 2 and both are known for running well into the 100s of thousands of miles). I don't drive "frequently", but when I do drive it's is a long distance one way. Living in a rural area with things like snow, etc. EVs aren't anywhere close to being ready for such. If the cost of owning an ICE vehicle becomes too much, then I will consider a hybrid.

[rsj_hn]

Toyota is more than happy to sell EVs to the UK. This is about not wanting to stop the production of other types of vehicles for Toyota's other markets, which they also want to serve.

Toyota revenue by region (2022) in trillions of Japanese Yen:

    Japan: 16
    North America: 11
    Asia: 6.5
    Europe: 3.9
    Other: 3.0

As with everything else, as the world fragments into different blocs, there will be different requirements for each bloc, and Toyota wants to remain a global car manufacturer.

[nradov]

No one seriously believes that the UK and most other countries will stick to those aspirational deadlines. They will inevitably push back the deadlines due to pressure from the electorate due to costs and availability.

It might work in places like Norway.

[rsj_hn]

I think many of these places in Europe will, in fact, adopt the deadlines and ban ICE vehicles, as they have shown to be resistant to public pressure. There are two issues, one is state capacity both to administer complex infrastructure change like this, as well as to suppress the popular pressures against it. The second is the practicality of the change -- switching to EV cars in Singapore is very different from doing the same on the steppes of Uzbekistan, the mountains of Turkey, or the rural parts of China. Only a fool would try to mandate something across the board -- which brings us back to the EU.

Life is going to get very hard in Europe for the average middle class family. I'm betting on significant standard of living declines in Europe across the board. People will complain, maybe even riot, but that's not going to make a difference to EU bureaucrats or to the British ruling class. If you have middle or lower class friends/relatives there and communicate regularly with them, you can pick up on the general gloomy view of the future in Western Europe.

Fortunately, most of Asia and the US, where the majority of the world's economy and population are located, is unlikely to implement universal mandates (excepting places like Singapore and Japan) -- they will be one option among other options. California, I expect, will relent simply because the state as a whole lacks the administrative competence to upgrade its grid to support mass EV usage. It lacks the competence to provide reliable power even now.

China is rolling out EVs in massive numbers, together with the necessary infrastructure in big cities, simply because there's not enough oil in the world to support 800 million cars driving around China, and it would be an air pollution nightmare -- something that Beijing is very sensitive about. But at the same time, China is not banning gas cars; rural areas still rely on gas cars, buses, and trucks. I remember being in a rickety old bus traveling a pot-hole filled road from Kunming to Li Jiang that lasted about 15 hours - there is simply no way you can do this with an EV. But China is again following a rational plan in which regional needs are taken into account, as China has experience deploying infrastructure at scale and is responsive to public pressures in a way that most western bureaucracies are not. Being a party dictatorship forces you to listen to the public on issues that matter because you cannot fall back on the legitimacy provided by elections -- which is why China just rolled back the zero covid policy. Holding elections often grants the government powers to do all sorts of anti-democratic things, even if the real policies are decided by structures designed to be unaccountable to voters. This is the essence of the administrative state.

It is this unique government structure, together with administrative competence, that's going to allow the EU to enforce these measures even as the rest of the world cannot. But at some point, EU voters are going to get wise to the fact that they are being ruled by structures over which they have no effective levers of control, and then things will get interesting. The EU announced they will create a small army -- they call it a "stabilization force" that can suppress attempted revolutions or unrest, so for a general riot like the Yellow Vests or Dutch Farmer, the local government is expected to suppress it, but if there is successful anti-EU revolution, then this army will be sent in. I expect this stabilization force to be busy in the next few decades.

[Ekaros]

EU isn't unstoppable force. Specially if populist parties not on the side of green-left-wing policies start losing. It is far more democratic than USA for example is. One side just needs to gain momentum and wide range of different populist political parties can overturn these decisions.