[kurthr]

So you filling up ICUs where there's no room for people who bothered to help their fellow citizens with heart attacks, car crashes, or cancer treatment is transmission? That is a different definition of transmission than I am aware of.

Can you please provide a dictionary or other reference?

In case you were wondering when ICUs were full of respiratory diseases, that would be last week.

[ifyoubuildit]

If 100 healthy unvaccinated people in their mid 30s caught delta, how many of them would you expect to end up in the ICU?

[kurthr]

Wow, what a cherry picked choice, too bad it's still awful and even an overly generous comparison makes that apparent.

   There are 23k ICU beds in the US.
   The population of the US is 330M. 
   The hospitalization rate for COVID was ~120/100k in 30 year olds.
   Average stay in ICU for COVID was 2-5 weeks.

So if the entire US was made up of unvaxed 30 year olds and 5% of them caught COVID every 2-5 weeks they would require ~3300x120x5%=20k ICU beds for at least an entire year! And since ICUs are normally about 30-50% full with other catastrophic medical events, that means someone else has to die for a self-important exercise of freedumb.

Normally, 30 year olds are healthy and don't present so highly in the hospitals or ICUs so on a percentage basis it's even worse (normal ~2%/decade vs ~20%/decade for 80yrs old). God forbid you're in rural America or your skin color is dark so you don't have access to the beds available in the cities. If you can't be polite to others, you shouldn't expect them to be polite to you.

[ifyoubuildit]

> The hospitalization rate for COVID was ~120/100k in 30 year olds.

So I think that roughly answers the question, you might expect something like .12 people to be hospitalized (does that include ICU? Do these people have prior exposures? Comorbidities?).

I just ask because I think not everyone is aware yet that covid was (and is) a disease with a wide range of outcomes. I think the number you cited would surprise quite a few people. Many seem to think it was basically like playing russian roulette no matter your situation, and would have guessed a double digit number.

I'm not making any kind of claim that people shouldn't get vaccinated. Just trying to show that some individuals deciding not to get vaccinated isn't exactly as murderous as some might think.

I apologize if this didn't seem like a polite question. Thank you for indulging me.

[kurthr]

Sorry, just have immuno-compromised family who are still home bound and couldn't get medical care for more than a year.

I think the other thing that people forget is that covid immune response can give you the same myocarditis (along with clots and heart attacks) as vaccines for much the same reasons, but at higher rates. The fact that the stabilized (Novavax, Pfizer, Moderna) vaccines have 10x lower rates of myocarditis than unmodified spike RNA (ChadOx, Sputnik) indicates that reducing the immune surface variation lowers risk.