statistically, it is extremely unlikely[0] for an otherwise healthy young person to end up in the hospital for covid, much like myocarditis -- i am simply interested in which is more likely for specific population subsets
The numbers are so small that it is hard to say -- several long-term studies are ongoing. All the evidence suggests the risk of Covid is far greater. I'm sure you know this, but covid causes significantly more cases of myocarditis than the vaccine.
During the past 60 days for people 18-49 (the cohort sizes are suspect) COVID cases per 100,000 were as follows:
Not fully vaxxed: 98.0
Fully vaxxed: 70.3
Boosted: 92.8
For 49-64 (again with the cohort sizing) per 100,000 cases are:
Not fully vaxxed: 90.0
Fully vaxxed: 86.7
Boosted: 96.7
Over 65 cases:
Not fully vaxxed: 390.05
Fully vaxxed: 284.2
Boosted: 161.7
So if you're young and healthy if you're boosted, you're hardly getting any protection.
If you're middle aged, it doesn't look like you're getting any protection from getting infected and if you're boosted, you may be increasing your risk.
If you're old and vulnerable, you should absolutely take the vaccine.
The CDC summarizes and caveats the data as follows (note particularly the last point):
- All vaccinated groups had overall lower risk of dying from COVID-19 and testing positive for COVID-19 compared with people who were unvaccinated.
- Based on early surveillance data, people who were vaccinated with an updated (bivalent) booster dose had lower rates of dying from COVID-19 and slightly lower rates of testing positive for COVID-19 compared with people who were vaccinated but had not received an updated booster dose.
- Age-standardized rates of cases and deaths by vaccination status and receipt of the updated (bivalent) booster dose do not account for other factors like the higher prevalence of previous infection among the unvaccinated and un-boosted groups; waning protection related to time since vaccination; and testing practices (such as use of at-home tests), underlying conditions, and prevention behaviors which likely differ by age and vaccination status. Additionally, any data recording errors that misclassify monovalent and updated (bivalent) boosters at the time of vaccine administration would make rates between the two groups appear more similar.
Lumping all people over the age of 12 together doesn't address what I was saying. I used the data I could find that had cohorts by age and vaccination status. I'm trying to dig through your source to see what the numbers look like per age cohort. I'm assuming we are going to find similar numbers in your data as we did in the MN data.
As for 60 days, that seems fair as that's likely to capture the prevalence of the most recent variants and not delta, which we know the vaccine worked well against...
So, looking at your source for the last 60 days, if you're in the 18-49 range your likelihood of getting Covid is about 2x if you're not vaxed and 2.2x if your not boosted.
Getting covid once right after sleeping in same space with all vaccinated. Positive - stayed at home - pretended to be ill. Friend, vaccinated, panicking getting covid after vacc..
Buut..this is Divide and Conquer, don't you see?
