[mlindner]

Emissions credits don't just shift CO2 production. They make CO2 production more expensive and increase the effective cost of other vehicles, resulting in shifted buying away from CO2 vehicles toward EVs.

And that's indeed what happened. A huge amount of the luxury vehicle market shifted to the Model S. Model S sales went way up and other luxury brands had years of record low sales.

Also in general, people are buying EVs to replace their old cars, so every EV sale is a "not-ICEV" sale. It's going to be rare that someone buys a new EV and a new ICEV at the same time to replace their old ICEV.