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by arcticbull 1282 days ago
> In addition to automake Tesla is in business of battery, AI, solar panel etc business, they are vertically integrated and I would say that why they are far ahead of other automakers and hence market cap bigger than other auto makers.

It really doesn't matter. The value of a battery business, the value of a solar panel business - are tiny compared to Tesla's current valuation.

The world's #4 battery maker is Panasonic, and their entire business is only worth $20B. The world's #2 battery maker is LG Chem and their entire business is only worth $36B. And both Panasonic and LG Chem do a whole heck of a lot more than make batteries.

The second-biggest solar company in the world, Canadian Solar, has $3.2B in revenue and a market cap of $1.6B.

So if we staple these together:

- Valuing Tesla like Toyota gets us $20B.

- Adding in the world's #2 battery maker plus the entire rest of their chemical business get us $36B.

- Adding in the worlds #2 solar company gets us $1.6B.

That's $57.6B market cap vs Tesla's $500B. So another 90% downside to fair valuation assuming they're able to become as big in batteries as LG Chem and as big in solar as Canadian Solar.

"Vibes" don't make a $500B valuation target in 4% interest rate market. Sorry.

1 comments

While I'm no Tesla investor at a $500b valuation, saying "valuing Tesla like Toyota gets us $20b" is a bit wild.

Tesla last year net profit: $5.5b; last quarter net profit: $3.3b.

Toyota last year net profit: $25b; last quarter net profit: $3.1b.

Toyota market cap: $200b

If you value Tesla based on annual profits, entirely ignoring realized and unrealized growth, They'd still have 23% valuation, $46b.

If you value Tesla based on quarterly profits, ignoring unrealized growth trajectory, they'd have similar valuation, $200b.

Ok so if you do that it gets you a 50% downside instead of a 90% downside.

I think future growth in Tesla involves significant margin contraction as they move down market, and as more entrenched players enter the EV space we’ll see margins on existing revenue go down too. This is peak value for them based on first mover advantage alone and it won’t last.

So yeah bear case 90% overvalued and bull case 50% overvalued. And this is after a 62.5% drop from peak value.