[DabbyDabberson]

I can't imagine why he wouldn't flee. If i was committing ~9 figures worth of fraud, I would have huge stashes of 1oz gold bars buried in countries without extradition like Vietnam and venezuela. He seems like he had no exit plan thought up.

Madoff got 150 years in prison, and i dont see any reason why SBF would get any less.

[quesera]

According the US Dept of State[0], Venezuela has an extradition treaty with the US, apparently since 1923.

All North and South American countries do. All Caribbean countries too. Even Cuba.

Parts of Africa and Asia look pretty safe. Madagascar is nice this time of year.

0. https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/71600.pdf

[akiselev]

Just because a country doesn't have an extradition treaty doesn't mean it won't extradite on a case by case basis. The vast majority of countries are signed on to at least one international treaty that covers extradition like the United Nations Convention against Corruption.

People like Ghosan are safe because they flee to countries that won't extradite their own nationals as a matter of long standing policy. They have no problem extraditing troublemakers from other nations, especially under international pressure.

See Vietnam's latest extradition for example [1], which doesn't have an extradition treaty with the US and they aren't even on the best of terms. The only way they could get away in Madagascar is if the authorities there didn't have the resources to capture them - a small promise of USAID from the State department would be enough to put extradition on the table.

[1] https://hanoitimes.vn/vietnam-us-cooperate-to-extradite-amer...

[bink]

IMHO what would determine whether or not he was extradited from one of those countries is not various treaties but how much cash he brought with him.

[quesera]

I think this is the best argument that SBF didn't intend to commit fraud, so much as fraudulent activity with the expectation that it'd all work out somehow. If the exchange contagion was quelled (partially by his actions backstopping other liquidity crises), and cryptocurrencies went generally up, and FTT was strengthened by FTX's appearance of strength, then all of these problems would have gone away.

If he had simple fraudulent intent (i.e. personal enrichment at the expense of customers), he would have had a plan. One that included adequate cash socked away in appropriate locations. Something much more well-thought out than "a US-friendly island 2 hrs by plane from SDNY".

[colechristensen]

He didn’t expect himself to fail or see himself as nefarious enough to have an extradition free life planned if things failed.

People aren’t cartoon villains, and the speculation about “what I’d do if I were Al Capone” or whatever are just silly fantasy.

This is bank fraud, not a heist, also much different than Madoff.

[JumpCrisscross]

> can't imagine why he wouldn't flee

He lost the locals' money too [1]. They weren't letting him go anywhere.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/bahamas-p...

[mccorrinall]

> Madoff got 150 years in prison, and i dont see any reason why SBF would get any less.

I actually see one: SBF mostly mishandled unregulated magic beans on an unregulated exchange (FTX.com).

The unregulated magic beans on the regulated exchange FTX.US are still there, waiting for withdrawal, according to his tweets.

US customers weren’t even allowed to register on FTX.com, which was outside the US.

Anyway, he still kinda defrauded Sequoia and friends, who didn’t buy magic beans but actual shares of the FTX exchanges (not sure about whether .com, .us or both)! But maybe he still gets less than 150 years..

[abigail95]

The customers sent real money to FTX that was lost.

Even if they only sent magic beans, wire fraud covers any form of property - not just money.

[alfalfasprout]

This is the guy that's bragging about committing fraud on live interviews... even after the screwup he didn't have the wherewithal to have an escape plan.

Then again, realistically a disappearing act of this magnitude would likely require access to a lot of trusted people to pull it off. Plastic surgery, boat captains, someone to plant false leads, security, etc.

[encryptluks2]

You'd have to be able to get to Vietman or Venezuela. I'm guessing he was being watched like a hawk. They could have arrested him at anytime, but having more evidence before an arrest is always a better position.

[rodgerd]

> If i was committing ~9 figures worth of fraud,

If you committed a billion in fraud, you probably wouldn't be shitposting on Twitter or giving interviews that made a prosecuter's case easier, either.

Guess what, you're smarter than this dude.

[TheAlchemist]

Nan, you probably would not. Do you have somebody in Vietnam or Venezuela, with a small army of mercenaries, and that you trust enough to hide those stashes of gold ?

[kibwen]

With the amount of money that's missing, $10B, one could afford to pay a regiment of 1,000 men a salary of $100,000 for the next hundred years.

[TheAlchemist]

Oh yeah, and how exactly do you imagine this going ?

You're going to ask to see a cartel boss and tell him you have $10B in untraceable money, and you need a small army - you're willing to pay 1,000 men - $100,000 for the next 10 years ? They will most probably start to torture you to know where the money is, before you finish these words.

That's a fun mental exercise btw - imagine you have $1B now - let's say illegal money you need to keep. How do you proceed ?

[TecoAndJix]

Pay cash for a field of shit land in the sticks, start purchasing hundreds of totaled cars (also with cash), remove or ruin engine/tires/seats/things of value, place the cars in the field, place the money inside the cars, and throw up a fence with no trespassing signs on it.

[acdha]

How much does one of those soldiers get for ratting him out to whichever country/cartel is willing to pay 0.0001% of that as a finder’s fee or agree not to notice that all of his stuff went missing shortly before capture? If you’re hiring mercenaries willing to stand off law enforcement, what keeps some of them from realizing that they can kill you and get their money all at once?

This is the prepper fallacy: stockpiling riches but not allies makes you a target, not safe. Maybe you can get away with it if you’re an incredibly charismatic cult leader but most people are going to be much better off with friends and family than a pile of Krugerrands and guns.

[jsemrau]

That might be the inexperience. He used pretty much every outlet out there to talk about his story and what really surprised me was the naïveté of SBF and Caroline.