[ecolonsmak]

I've been reading Peter Zeihan's book , "the end of the world is just the beginning" the death of free trade being the central theme a near future where the US has abandoned policing the seas and formerly interconnected economies localize in response. Began reading it slightly sceptical of the premise but anecdotes like this above are adding up to a near term 30-50 year that might resemble a global contraction amongst trading relationships.

[MR4D]

I highly recommend going back and reading The Accidental Superpower as well. Considering it was written a decade ago (pub. 2014) it’s amazing how correct he’s been in forecasting things.

To be clear, there is a certain fuzziness in timeframes, and he mentions that, but in general, the timing he mentions is scarily accurate.

One thing that I saw earlier this year was Sri Lanka. Many others will follow in various levels of degradation over the coming years.

[diego_moita]

Reading the book too.

It is a very interesting read, I highly recommend. The guy knows a lot and it has lots of interesting information.

But I am not convinced. I think his approach is just too American, in particular, when it comes to China. I am not American and, sometimes, his jingoism is just too much.

[pkaye]

A lot of what is happening makes sense from a national security perspective. If the global supply chains get broken how much can a country continue to function.

Like Germany cannot produce enough ammo because it depends on cotton from China.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Germany-struggl...

US onshoring cotton production.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUdIz21P7zE