[Schroedingersat]

Costs for LFP are around $350/kWh and about half consists of BOS like inverters, charge control cooling, fire control, etc.

10-20% YoY drop in manufacturing cowts is pretty likely, although demand will keep up with production and lithium extraction capacity so this might just turn into profit in the short term.

Sodium ion is presently scaling, which should remove most of this raw material limitation by late 2020s. Additionally the lower volumetric capacity, higher coulpmbic efficiency and higher thermal stability should reduce cooling and fire control.

TL;DR Some/most people expect it to drop each year similar to what solar did. I expect prices to be stable for 2-4 years while anyone with a lithium mine or existing production builds a small ocean of cash to swim in and then crash abruptly to <$80/kWh