[alephnerd]

Egypt has strong a military relationship with Saudi and the US so a no-go

Libya's governments have strong military relationships with Turkey and/or the US+France so a no-go

If they try to take asylum somewhere outside Iran it would probably be Malaysia (lots of the Iranian elite send their children to the British+Australian university campuses there plus it's basically First World) or Qatar (similar reason as Malaysia but also American universities)

[mc32]

I don't think Malaysia would -they're not quite aligned with Western nations, but also they don't like getting in trouble. But maybe Brunei or even Indonesia. Indonesia probably doesn't care as long as you stay out in some remote island to yourself.

[alephnerd]

The current Iranian government has strong relations with Malaysia - Iranian oil is often exported on tankers with Malaysian flags[0] and Malaysian politicians often lean pro-Iran[1][2] due to anti-imperialism, a Persiophilic form of Sunni Islam due to diffusion via South Asia, and business ties.

Indonesia's elite tend to be much more West dependent than Malaysia (and anecdotally, USC is the main school Indonesian elites send their children to, compared to British and Singaporean unis for Bumiputra Malaysians)

[0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Ira...

[1] - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-malaysia/mu...

[2] - https://rusi.org/publication/tension-asia-pacific-iranian-ma...

[mc32]

Thanks, I was unaware of those ties. That makes sense. Culturally it's probably closer to Iran than Venezuela is, and they're probably inquiring within over there (just not reported). If I were a baddie, I sure would not put all my eggs in one basket.

The one "advantage" Maduro has is he's a strongman's strongman and a socialist caudillow.

[alephnerd]

Venezuela makes sense for the top leaders because they would worry more so about extradition. Malaysia makes sense for the rest of the party apparatus.

I wouldn't be surprised if a number of the pro-regime Imams end up moving to India though - that was Khomeini's backup to Paris, is the 2nd largest Shia country in the world, and historically was the goto country of refuge for religious Iranian.