[sebzim4500]

Sure but it is a simple result in Bayesian statistics that if event X increases your confidence in fact Y then ~X should decrease your confidence in Y.

For example, if SBF evading jail would increase your confidence in the statement "The US justice system is wholly corrupt" then SBF being sentenced should decrease your confidence in it.

[shkkmo]

We've seen enough examples of X to maintain confidence in Y. You need a lot more than a single ~X to significantly impact that assessment.