[snapplebobapple]

It's actually a very long term view, looking at the last 9000 years or so of history we are aware of. You also have requirements confused with incentives. That the things you mention are required does not in any way mean globalization will happen if they are present. There needs to be a strong incentive that is more valuable than the status quo to all the parties involved and there are all sorts of assumptions about that incentive that are unclear if they are true or pretty clear they are false (eg: assuming economies of scale will continue with size at a meaningful enough value rather than plateauing, changing slope to be much flatter or outright decreasing. Assuming technology will always improve. Assuming population changes from, for example, an ultra low birth rate won't precipitate one of the many breaking up of large countries we have seen in history, etc.)