[Schroedingersat]

This paper

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151...

Which you keep citing parts of or citing directly shows costs increasing 23% year on year after the opening of the first large commercial reactor. This increase then slowed after TMI according to that paper. The only cost decreases were demo reactors, and small turnkey reactors most of which were shut down not very long after. The countries where costs did not escalate all had far worse reliability than the US program after the 80s. You get what you pay for.

In 2022 dollars the overnight cost for reactors coming online just prior to TMI is over $3000/kW for capacity factors that didn't exceed 58% until many more upgrades and repairs had been made over the course of years or decades.

Here is a simple model in the arctic for a renewable mix of 100MW with higher capacity than those plants at an all in cost that is lower than the overnight cost in your fantasy scenario. It uses a capacity factor about 2% lower than the median for new wind and a solar panel angle that is off optimal by 20 degrees for the latitude.

https://model.energy/?results=fae43ac72e2df9c13526b6989d63c0...

Selling the power that system made for just the O&M costs of the cheapest US reactors today for 20 years would pay for another one.

Renewables in reality are vastly superior to your fantasy nuclear reactor.

[Manuel_D]

You're mixing up construction start dates and end dates. It's the color that distinguishes which plants were completed before and after Three Mile Island. The red is before. The brown is after.

https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S03014215163001...

Cost exploded after three mile island, your idea that cost increases slowed after is the complete opposite. Can you really not see how the brown data points shoot up?

> for capacity factors that didn't exceed 58% until many more upgrades and repairs had been made over the course of years or decades.

Are you going to keep cherry picking one plan? Nuclear's average capacity factor is over 90% https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity

I looked into your claim that earlier plants had lower capacity factors. This is true for demonstration plants in the 50s and early 60s, but not the 800+ MW production facilities that were built during the nuclear boom.

[Schroedingersat]

> You're mixing up construction start dates and end dates. It's the color that distinguishes which plants were completed before and after Three Mile Island. The red is before. The brown is after.

I am and always have been talking only about the bright red dots. I'm indulging in your fantasy and demonstrating that the result of it is the opposite of what you claim. Yet again, the first large commercial reactor that didn't shutdown after a handful of years was San Onofre opening in 1968. This is the start point.

Every year in which nuclear reactors were being operated commercially, costs increased due to the discovery of a the ways it's really hard. Reactors which were under construction after 1968 and completed before 1979 were more expensive every year at a rate of 23% as per your own source. Your red cluster is an increasing function of time. The growth rate (as in ratio of costs from year to year) actually slowed after TMI. This is the conclusion of the paper this image is from.

The top end of the line representing reactors started just before TMI. The reactors you claim are the cheapest of all time. When adjusted for 2022 dollars. Cost over $3000/kW.

92% is the capacity for US plants after decades of operation including the costs incurred by TMI and chernobyl and fukuhsima. It also includes survivorship bias as the reactors which were destroyed or were too unreliable and shut down early are excluded. World average EAF according to IAEA is 79%. You want a cut rate nuclear program, you get the performance of a cut rate nuclear program. France and South Korea are barely better than the early US program. Japan was much worse. The only outlier with a large sample where reports are even approaching reality is China, and the prices China reports for every major project are a tiny fraction of what anyone else does.

The Phung paper has a list of plants and capacity factors up until 1985. The average is 58% and many are far below. Every reactor that wasn't cancelled or closed and didn't have an accident which destroyed an integral part of it has had substantial upgrades and repairs since then.

If we were being honest, then of the 16 reactors finished between 1976 and 1979, we'd include the price of the 3 that failed or were closed decades early in the accounting as well as their cleanup and decomissioning prices, but I'm letting you have that one along with all the other unaccounted subsidies.