[Twirrim]

It's not even that, and it never really has been. Anyone talking about performance was misrepresenting it. The prediction was that the density with which you're at the point of minimum-cost-per-transistor would double every year. It was also originally a prediction going out 10 years to 1975.

The more transistors you put on a chip, the less expensive each transistor is, but the higher the risk of defects, so there's always an optimum amount as your fabrication processes improve.

> The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year (see graph on next page). Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000.

> I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer.

https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/...