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Indeed, that's the classical game theoretic view. However, consider two possibilities: - what if deployment of an effective BMD is covert and piecemeal, and is presented as fait accompli? The first to do that wins, and we only have one real contender. You might say that's a very dangerous gamble, but… - what response do you envision if the cover is blown? Yes, classic game theory suggests launching everything, but let's think about, say, Putin's options. If he launches, he is guaranteed to die very soon and have his country obliterated. If he doesn't, his nuclear deterrent is indeed worth less now, but it's not given he'd ever need it. Both because it might not be needed during his long and happy life, and because the US is not very keen on attacking random dictatorships despite some historical precedents. So the choice for him is between immediate death and potential problems in the future, and hey maybe it's not actually BMD or maybe it's not very effective, right? Covert/deniable deployment helps here, a lot So between those two possibilities, I think it's not given that an effective BMD would be as dangerous as you suggest. |
When an opponent discovers the deployment, either after-the-fact, or during deployment. They have many responses beyond immediately launching everything. The main problem is that this deployment corners them. Perhaps they try to attack the missile shield in space. Perhaps they run covert operations to disable the shield. Perhaps they take economic warfare counter-measures. I imagine plenty of former allies might side against whomever made such a huge uni-lateral move.
In any case, as we say in my native language, a cornered cat makes weird jumps. I don't think it makes sense to corner China or Russia in this field. MAD works well enough.