[jupp0r]

A great mentor once told me about the poker analogy method of coping with situations you describe.

Let's say you are a great poker player. When you get dealt a good hand, you play it and end up loosing - does that make you a worse player?

Turns out even the best of all players loose quite frequently. What distinguishes them from others is that they make the best choices with the limited information they have at the time. They later go back and learn from any mistakes they have made and move forward.

[anon7725]

I ran into an interesting point about poker in a recent episode of EconTalk[0]. Really good players play slightly more hands than they should (ie on a tournament table with 9 seats, a good player might play 15-20% of hands). Amateurs play way more hands than they should - like 50% or so. Translating to this thread, I’d map “playing a hand” to committing real resources to a project (switching tech stacks, etc). Pros will be somewhat conservative and only take that bet when they have a higher expectation of success.

[0] https://www.econtalk.org/annie-duke-on-the-power-of-quitting...

[ElevenLathe]

In other words, you gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and when to run.

[AlchemistCamp]

She also mentioned how sick she was of hearing that song played when she took to the stage at various events and how Poker Face was a welcome change :)

[comprev]

Similar to management roles in the armed forces - those on the ground have to make split second decisions based on the latest information they have to hand. Getting it wrong usually has fatal consequences and it takes a certain personality trait to continue making those decisions.