[Satam]

To distill: popularity of an idea != quality of thought. Just because many people believe something, doesn't mean it's likely to happen. In fact, it doesn't even mean the people believe their idea is very probable (e.g. VCs betting on startups knowing that most of them will fail).

In turn, it can be useful to adjust the very one-sided public estimates based your own nuanced reasoning. This could change the status-quo probability from 99% to, say, 60%.