[driuha]

Occam's razor is the idea that, in trying to understand something, getting unnecessary information out of the way is the fastest way to the truth or to the best explanation (c) wiki

The explanation about dictator's desire for power(now also life) is more simple than geopolitics and cultural suppression.

And about the needs of the Russian people: I don't remember Russians having a debate about starting a full scale war. Maybe Putin thinks its what they need but if there was a real debate we can safely assume people would prioritize having in-house toilets and a million other things that are suddenly became not so important.

[oska]

You are 'applying Occam's razor' to a fiction, not reality. Anyone can dream up a fiction (or take one supplied to them) and then draw a simplistic conclusion from it.

[driuha]

I'm applying explanation to a fact. "Fiction" is not the right property to categorize explanations, the right one would be "probability". So yes, anyone can dream up an explanation and then judge if one is more probable than the other.