[onetimeusename]

I am surprised people expect these apps to remain popular for a long time. The internet has changed so much. I've watched social media apps come and go every few years and I personally think they are all short lived trends with maybe a few exceptions. They capture a young market first, who provide the value (photos, videos, memes) and then older generations start joining after the young market is captured. Then after five to 10 years, they age out, the fad is over. A new app captures the younger generation and the cycle repeats.

Some smaller social media networks have maybe kinda sorta survived more than one generation to some extent but it's debatable. Twitter seems like it has the most staying power so far but the present situation is evolving rapidly.

[arnvald]

I'd actually keep using social apps more if they stayed closer to their original versions.

My Facebook feed turned from updates from my friends and family to garbage filled with politics, ads, suggested pages, and I stopped using it.

My Instagram feed turned from photos of my family and friends to garbage: again ads, recommended pages, later videos. Eventually I deleted it.

Twitter was close to that when they introduces algorithmic feed which showed stuff I didn't want to see and I was close to deleting the app, thankfully there's a way to still have the chronological feed without all the "likes" and "recommendations".

I keep using Reddit because I still can use it the same way as years ago - join communities that interest me and not see the stuff I don't want (even though they regularly push some more useless stuff to show me)

I believe social media can last long, but they need to find balance between monetization, innovation, and staying true to their users. Facebook and Instagram went way too far in alienating their users, and while they're still popular, they're declining.

[pixelrevision]

I’m surprised Reddit is even considered social media. The anonymity of the users and focus on subjects over people make it a very different experience. With Facebook and instagram you have a limited pool of people that interest each other and if they stop posting they have to figure out what to show you. That’s… really hard, especially if you signed up with these people in mind.

With Reddit meanwhile you can easily select the subjects you are interested in and there’s a bottomless pit of people who can post and comment on that. While it being mostly text based will probably limit how big it can get compared to something like TikTok I suspect there’s a better slow and steady business model with less churn.

I also really like that they offer a monthly sub at a fair price that removes the ad problem. I really wish more companies would take this sort of approach.

[onetimeusename]

What you're saying is interesting. I think part of that is the tension between older and younger generations which is why I don't think these things last.

Reddit is kind of a notable standout. Maybe that and Twitter's features are what guarantees a sustained viewership. I don't know, this is all kind of new.

At least for photo and video sharing sites, it seems like these tend to be trendy and have a population boom and bust cycle. But then again I don't want to speak authoritatively. But looking at FB it reported it's first decline in daily visits this year and the decline among teens and younger generations is even more pronounced. Certainly looks like a population peak.

[postalrat]

Reddit tried to kill itself with the new ad optimized UI but saved itself by continuing to let users use the old UI.

[grishka]

The desire to "grow", and the lack of a defined end state for that growth, is the problem. It's not hard to build a social media service that pays for itself and then some, but they all are run by greedy people and so they want more money all the time. These people have no notion of "enough money". That's the fundamental problem behind all social media services going to shit.

The fediverse won't be like that though.

[pixl97]

Time will tell what happens with the fediverse, collapsing under the weight of moderation sounds like a probable scenario to me.

[fasthands9]

I mean I think the people who predicted they would remain popular for a long time were actually right? They may stop accelerating but they are still as popular as ever.

YouTube is the second visited site in the US and FB is the third - and they've been at the top for over a decade. E-mail is not a social network but has stuck around for 20 years. I've used Reddit since 2010. I've been on Instagram for six years now and probably use it more now than I ever have. Even Snapchat which to me seemed like a fad - is massively popular among teens.

I think it is true there are lots of smaller sites like Vine or Digg or YikYak which peter out but it seems like if you hit the critical mass then you can maintain popularity for decades.

[bostik]

YouTube likely has staying power despite of what the company are doing with the UI and user experience flows, because it sure as hell can't be because of it. And at least their search is not trying to actively work against the user. (Their recommendation engine is a dumpster fire, for sure.)

A mostly usable, generally accessible, and fairly easily discoverable video hosting platform. I can think of a lot of worse product pitches.

[fullstackchris]

I also have seen and beleive this is an accurate picture of how these things go. But I'd ask, what about pseudo- social network apps like airbnb? They have a minimal social aspect, but to me app like that will have a longer possible lifetime. I guess even in airbnb's case there are competitors encroaching and stealing market share...