I wasn't clear. I was questioning the overly simplistic "no life at all" as if some environmental changes are made the reduction in quality of life will be significant
Because of corona many people now have no life at all (i.e., they’re dead), and many more would have died if not for all the measures, so not sure how the statement was overly simplistic.
Same goes for the environment, if we don’t act, the environmental changes will have life ending impact for a significant number of people. Maybe not directly, but there will be food shortage, and wars. It is in the interest of everyone that we try to limit the impact of global warming as much as possible.
> Do people believe that they’re going to actually die because of global warming?
Climate change can be obdserved and measured. (Nitpick, but the 80's term "global warming" is used less often these days since it's confusing for some people, because climate change can have vastly different effects in different areas, not just simply "warming")
We already know that heatwaves are killing people and droughts are affecting the entire food chain, again, killing people for years already. [1]
You might take the position that these very real deaths are not caused by climate change (disagreeing with scientific consensus), that they are merely a fluke in the climate history of our planet, but then you'd have to, at least for yourself, define an "evidence threshold" which, when presented, would make you go "ok, now it's undeniably man-made climate change that is killing these people", because the slow graduality of the process makes it hard to intuitively see cause and effect.
I had a good life. I am worried about my children and also trying to think about the billions of people that will see their quality of life significantly degraded.
Geopolitical instability due to scarcer resources is certainly going to have a massive negative impact on everyone's life.
Just look at how a "small war" in Ukraine is already having real life consequences all around the world.
Now, imagine the effects of food and water insecurity across the world. Even Russia was not stupid enough to fully block supplies of wheat leaving Ukraine.
And this is only one aspect of how climate change might impact you.
People already have died because of global warming. Do you truly believe no additional marginal people have died due to intensified wildfire or hurricanes in recent decades?
15 years ago the show The Newsroom (another aaron sorkin flick) made the Toby Ruins Everything joke about how "the first person to die due to catastrophic failure of the planet has already been born", you know, supposed to be a bit hyperbolic and funny but yeah, dead on, the only part of that that hasn't come to pass since then is the "storms that blot out the sun and create permanent darkness" bit/joke. Massive wildfires in numbers and scale far too big to keep under control? Intense hurricanes and 100 year floods at yearly intervals? Tropical diseases that start to break loose and spread out of control? Anybody hear any of those lately?
Honestly that was a bit of a mis-statement even then. The first person to die due to catastrophic failure of the climate was actually probably born in the 70s or 80s most likely.
And the party is really just getting started, this is nothing, there is around a 10-year latency so we are just seeing the impact of 2012-era carbon levels right now. It'll be another 10 years before we see the impact of the current decade of continued emissions growth. Things are going to continue to get a lot worse and fires/hurricanes/etc are only going to intensify.
Which is of course why it's important to actually get things fixed, because, as bad as things are, they will get worse unless the necessary system upgrades and repair work is performed... everyone has had that talk with management before. Some companies choose to change, some don't. Unfortunately there's nobody hiring on Mars or Europa at present...
2 degrees c average change in the next 28 years will cause people to die.
Looking at the droughts, floods, heat waves, polar vortexes, hurricane occurrences, fires (California and Siberia) - people have died over the last years in events occurring more often than they should.
Harvests and famine have some correlation to Syria and Ukraine wars and proxy wars over the last decade.
That was in response to the impact of corona approach on the economy, where millions died and still people think economy is more important.
But yes, in my opinion global warming is going to cause a lot of hurt. Countries will become unlivable (some islands will be gone in a few decades, the Netherlands will be mostly under water, dikes can not be heightened limitless, certain areas of India will soon be too hot for normal live), food production will be uncertain due to changing weather and drought, mass migration of people to more livable areas will follow, causing wars.
We’re already complaining about the amount of asylum seekers, the country is too small for all these people, how do you think it’s going to be with many more people on the move?
Yes, people are dying because of lots of causes, that's the unfortunate truth, but it seems to me that some people do believe that a large part of us will die because of climate change. Hence my question.
I believe that to be false, a large part of us (as a species) will not die because of climate change (as past climate change events can attest to).
Maybe not a large part of the humans living now, but the next generation won't have it easy. I don't think that it's prudent to look at past events for two reasons: Population size and in-/dependence. There are a lot more humans now, than in the past. The year 0 is estimated to have had a population of about 170 to 400 million and about half for every 1000 years before that. It is a lot easier for smaller independent populations to move to a new place and start over, especially when most of them are hunter-gatherers or simple farmers. Their lives didn't change that much.
What will a population of 8 billion interconnected and dependent people do? They can't all move to a new place, they can't all farm for themselves. Just the war in Ukraine caused significant food insecurity due to higher grain prices and lower export numbers in some poorer countries. Now imagine such problems on a global scale.
Many of the current conflicts going on in the world already are water wars in disguise, or are about dealing with degrading environments, like in the Sahel zone. Also large-scale refugee movements are about people trying to escape from places where supply for land suitable for agriculture is not increasing. This is on top of ecosystems actively degrading because of multiple other reasons as well. There are always going to be populations somewhere that manage to insulate themselves from these problems, but things will become rougher for many of us.