[jonathanstrange]

Von Neumann's reasoning in this case is a good example of the limits of simple game theory and a too simplified modeling. Ironically, it shouldn't be too hard to come up with a credible model of evolutionary game theory that illustrates why pre-emptive strikes would have been bad in the long run. I'm not advocating EGT or game theory in general (there are many other problems with applying these "models" to real world phenomena) and I'm not saying von Neumann was clearly wrong, but I am willing to say with confidence that it's far-fetched and naive to believe he was clearly right. Luckily, most decision makers agreed with this assessment then.