One plant does not change the game that much. You still need TSMC to keep working on whatever the next tech will be as well as all their current production in Taiwan which is fully booked.
I agree that it's not a simple plant opens => China invades, but this does feel like we're starting to see the dominos line up.
If it's about talent, it's a lot easier to quickly import people than to import a massive fab plant, and I assume we'll be building talent (either domestic or imported) as we build out the related infrastructure and industry.
It would certainly be disruptive, but I assume part of the US's drive is to reduce dependency on Taiwan, and consequently exposure to the threat of China.
If the US stops caring about Taiwan, it's both safer for China to invade Taiwan (less pushback from the US), and less geopolitically valuable (less damage to the US), but China's interests aren't focused entirely on the geopolitical when it comes to Taiwan.
My cousin is doing a contract with TSMC. Basically they fly over 100 Americans per year to Taiwan and train them for 1-1.5years. Then they fly them back to the usa to work in the US factory.
The problem is TW compensation and work conditions are terrible. Many of them quit before completely their agreements, so they aren’t actually training that many Americans.
If it's about talent, it's a lot easier to quickly import people than to import a massive fab plant, and I assume we'll be building talent (either domestic or imported) as we build out the related infrastructure and industry.
It would certainly be disruptive, but I assume part of the US's drive is to reduce dependency on Taiwan, and consequently exposure to the threat of China.
If the US stops caring about Taiwan, it's both safer for China to invade Taiwan (less pushback from the US), and less geopolitically valuable (less damage to the US), but China's interests aren't focused entirely on the geopolitical when it comes to Taiwan.