Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by naillo 1297 days ago
Is it naive of me to think that CEOs aren't really much better macro predictors than most of us and are kind of doing this in a wave like fad "because that's what everyone else is doing"?
4 comments

I think that's very realistic.

One of the really startling things for me the first time we deposited a big VC check was how compelling the experience is. Printing out an ATM receipt with 7 figures on it was very memorable. We had to remind ourselves that however much it felt like success, it didn't mean shit in terms of our real goals.

I think that's much harder for people who are in that situation with less life experience and little or no experience building actual businesses. Coaching at entrepreneur events, I discovered there are a lot of people whose goal is to "be the next Mark Zuckerberg" (or whoever) or who wanted to found a unicorn. Who were thinking about it as a life stage, as in "I'm not sure if I'll found a startup or go to grad school".

And I suspect that's even more true lately with the vast amounts of VC money sloshing around. It must be quite easy to pay more attention to your investors and your YC cohort and the tech press than the grubby realities of commerce.

There is a weirdness with money - it feels very similar as income whether it is profit, an investment, or a loan.

Part of the reason cash out refinancing is so fraught with peril.

Absolutely.

It makes sense; if your competitors are hiring, you need to hire in order to keep up and so you don't get out-executed. If they're firing, then maybe you don't need to "keep up with the Jones" as much.

> CEOs aren't really much better macro predictors than most of us

This isn’t a CEO’s job.

The board is telling them to, irrespective of whether they think about it themselves.