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by somenameforme 1307 days ago
They raised them to 20% for one month in the face of a nuclear economic strike. Their rates are down to 7.5% which are close to nominal for them. Remaining effects are a 3% GDP decline and a 12% inflation rate trending downward from a peak of 18% following the attack.

The overall impact seems to be fading to zero relatively quickly, excepting a much stronger ruble. Future growth numbers will be interesting to follow. Much could shift radically one way or the other depending on oil prices, but the US seems to have a declining level of influence with OPEC+.
1 comments
The_Colonel 1307 days ago
> Remaining effects are a 3% GDP decline

It's 3.9% (which rounds up to 4%, not to 3%) this year and 5.6% next year.

This forecast is based on figures kindly provided by Russian authorities, which in times of war have strong incentives to be creative.

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somenameforme 1307 days ago
The Russian central bank expects a rate of 3-3.5%, the Ministry of Economic Development expects a decline of 2.9%. [1] Your numbers may be dated, as the expected figures keep improving. Some time back they were expecting double digit declines.

[1] - https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual

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The_Colonel 1307 days ago
The 3.9%, 5.6% decline comes from OECD's November report, so hardly outdated.

I don't think there's much reason to trust Russian Central Bank which has strong incentives (read: orders) to enhance the numbers.

https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/november-2022/

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