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by sgt101 1295 days ago
If only. Of course, you mean the EU.

But the UK has run a trade deficit of $60bn with the EU for the last 10 years or so. Leaving hasn't helped that, but staying wouldn't have either.

Something has to change in the relationship - something deep and real. The fundamental is the competitive advantage that the Euro confers on the German economy. Brexit is a way it can change overtime, there won't be an advantage for the UK, just an emergent state that is sustainable. The UK will be poorer in the present - but may avoid a Greece style implosion.

Truss showed that may is important here.

1 comments

I fail to see which advantage is conferred by the Euro to the German economy, at least in the relationship with UK.

Unlike Germany, UK has always been free to establish any exchange rate they desired, between GBP and EUR. So only UK could have any advantages from the manipulation of the currencies.

Within the countries that use EUR, it can be claimed that Germany has the advantage that the other countries cannot cheat and compensate other economic problems by playing with the exchange rate. In my opinion that is a good thing, because stealing money from the people by devaluating their assets through artificial exchange rates is not the right solution for solving international commerce imbalances.

If the Euro was a currency backed by the economies of Germany, Holland and Denmark it would be valued much more highly than it is now. Because of this these economies have a relative competitive advantage compared to other similar economies.

If the Euro was part of a federal system with federal transfers - like the US$ then this advantage would be mitigated because the budget positions of the rich parts of the EU would be relatively weaker (due to transfers) and the periphery of the EU would have stronger fiscal positions.

>In my opinion that is a good thing, because stealing money from the people by devaluating their assets through artificial exchange rates is not the right solution for solving international commerce imbalances.

Fair opinion - but what is the solution? Do you agree that federalisation with fiscal transfer would be correct?

The only reason Germany become such an export powerhouse is because their currency was lower than what it would have been naturally as a country. Because countries like Greece and Italy pulled the euro down.

This was very convenient for Germany as they could build exports cheaply.

If you don’t understand this, which is a very basic part of how the eu ended up as what it is, I would just question the rest of your commenting.

I don't blame Germans and Germany for taking advantage, but the political maturity to use this to create security and prosperity for everyone in Europe is completely lacking. I suppose unification and the problems afterwards are somewhat to blame.