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by cloutchaser 1295 days ago
Very nice, but the EU is probably going to decline in GDP more than the UK, and the euro could potentially collapse due to the Italy situation in the next few years.

Thinking the UKs issues are because of brexit are about as simplistic as saying “tax the rich will solve all the worlds issues”
1 comments
jimnotgym 1295 days ago
>the EU is probably going to decline in GDP more than the UK

Even if that does happen, it doesn't necessarily follow that the UK couldn't also have a higher GDP by trading with the EU

>Thinking the UKs issues are because of brexit

... could make you the governor of the Bank of England

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/16/brexit-and-...

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sgt101 1295 days ago
It doesn't follow, but history post 2016 wasn't written in gold if the UK had stayed in. The north of England, the central belt of Scotland and the south of Wales were in a terrible state. Brexit has failed to help, but remaining almost certainly wouldn't have either. The biggest issue the UK has experienced since leaving is Covid-19. Remaining wouldn't have helped us in that contingency.

The UK has blamed Europe for it's ills for 40 years. Remainers/rejoiners are still centered on this - we have to start to look to ourselves. Being in or out of Europe is not at issue; working to build a sustainable national economy and polity is.

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jimnotgym 1295 days ago
>south of Wales were in a terrible state.

South of Wales benefitted greatly from EU funds. From renovating coal tips to employment schemes. I don't understand your point here, it was the EUs fault that the UK had run down regions... even though the EU gave them money????

>The UK has blamed Europe for it's ills for 40 years. Remainers/rejoiners are still centered on this

This makes no sense at all

>we have to start to look to ourselves.

Are you suggesting that we shouldn't have international trade?

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sgt101 1295 days ago
>South of Wales benefitted greatly from EU funds. From renovating coal tips to employment schemes. I don't understand your point here, it was the EUs fault that the UK had run down regions... even though the EU gave them money????

yes - in the same way that it's the EU's fault that Italy and Greece and Spain have run down regions. The Euro is sucking capital from the periphery of the EU to the core... and because the EU has monetary union but not federal union there are only very small fiscal transfers in the opposite direction. This is in contrast to the monetary union in the USA where there are considerable federal transfers.

>This makes no sense at all

I will try and better explain. I think that the UK must stop blaming it's ills on its position relative to the EU; instead it must take the arrangements of other European states as a fact and make its own policy and direction. The obsession with the EU will change nothing - only internal reform of the EU to a fully federal state will change the current dynamic. The only real path for the UK in the EU is to fully join a fully federal state - I wouldn't mind too much about that if the commission was abolished, a proper civil service developed and the EU parliament had the final say over the civil service and the president (I would like a president who could propose legislation and dissolve the parliament for elections if legislation could not be passed).

However, I see precisely 0 chance of this happening in the next 50 years. After that I will be dead...

> Are you suggesting that we shouldn't have international trade?

No, of course not. I am suggesting that we see reforms and changes to our economy that enable us to have balanced trade with the rest of the world. The arrangement where we import vastly more than we export is not sustainable (in so many ways). The Brexit devaluation should have been helpful, but has been rendered moot by the very bad post Brexit trading setup. The end of the current pathway (and the pre-Brexit path) is a comprehensive economic meltdown a-la Greece in 2011; there is still sometime to avoid this - but Trussonomics showed that there is not as much as our establishment would like to think. This is the UK's fault and the UK needs to fix it.

In a way the Truss debacle has been a good wake up call - but there's still time for it to be swept under the carpet...

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