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by JamesBarney 1299 days ago
I spend a lot of time in EA adjacent spaces and I've read the Basilisk there once, but I've seen it in several popular magazines reporting about EA 4 times. I really don't think it's a top concern at Givewell.

I've never seen seen a survey of AI experts where less than 50% thought we wouldn't have AGI by 2100. Why are you so confident that AI is an order of magnitude less likely in the next 100 years then the vast majority of experts in the field?

https://nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf
1 comments
cauthon 1299 days ago
Are they AI experts? The authors of the paper you linked are philosophers, not CS. Yudkowsky doesn’t have even a high school education, and I’ve never seen any programming or ML work by him.

Frankly, the “research” in this area all appears to be science fiction that takes itself too seriously.

link
JamesBarney 1299 days ago
Two of the groups they surveyed were AI researchers, it break it does by those groups, and the majority of those groups think AGI will happen in 100 years.

1. EETN: Members of the Greek Association for Artificial Intelligence (EETN), a professional organization of Greek published researchers in the field, in April 2013. Ca. 250 members. 2. TOP100: The 100 ‘Top authors in artificial intelligence’ by ‘citation’ in ‘all years’ according to Microsoft Academic Search(http://academic.research.microsoft.com) in May 2013. We reduced the list to living authors, added as many as necessary to get back to 100

link