| I think it's unfair to jump to the conclusion that Kalshi is to blame for regulators banning PredictIt. From the link you posted, PredictIt promised the regulators they would: * be small-scale and not-for-profit * be operated for academic and research purposes only It doesn't really say what "small-scale" means, but obviously, if PredictIt keeps being successful and growing, eventually they will no longer be small scale. PredictIt was always in a situation where they had to make a different deal with regulators, eventually, as long as they continued to grow. If you want to blame the CFTC for shutting down PredictIt, Intrade, all of those other prediction markets, then yeah, I agree! I wish they had just been much more permissive long ago. We should blame the CFTC for being too strict. But it doesn't seem fair to blame Kalshi just because they might be the ones to finally convince the regulators to allow one of these. I hope Kalshi is the group to figure this out, make prediction markets popular, and that prediction markets can finally get the attention from wider society that they deserve. |